His demise left the world championship vacant and FIDE proposed a tournament to be scheduled for June of 1947 in The Netherlands. They planned a quadruple round robin tournament with the 1938 AVRO tournament to be used as the basis.
Two of the participants at AVRO (Alekhine and Capablanca had died), but FIDE decided that the other six participants would play for the title (Euwe, Botvinnik, Keres, Flohr, Fine and Reshevsky). Additionally, the winner of either the upcoming Groningen or Prague tournaments would also be included. As it turned out at Groningen 1946, Botvinnik, Euwe and Smyslov finished 1, 2 and 3. At Prague it was Najdorf followed by Stoltz and Trifunovic (tied).
The Soviet Union was allowed to replace Flohr with Vasily Smyslov, a young player who had emerged during the war years and was obviously stronger than the 40-year old Flohr. who had grown content to agree to a draw at the drop of a hat.
As for Miguel Najdorf, for reasons that are not clear he was not invited. In a 1947 interview he stated, "I believe that I am inferior to none of the players who are to participate in the next world championship...None of these have a better record than I. I have played much less than they have, admittedly, but I am satisfied with my results." There is speculation that pressure from the Soviet Chess Federation, perhaps lead by Botvinnik, may have been responsible for keeping Najdorf out.
Reuben Fine wasn't interested in playing for the title because he was supposedly working on his doctorate and besides, he thought the Russians were cheating. Years later writing in his book The World’s Great Chess Games he claimed that "on the basis of this victory (AVRO 1938) and in light of the circumstances of international chess in the war period, Keres and I should have been declared co-champions for the period 1946-48, between the death of Alekhine and the 1948 tournament."
On September 15, 1946, a day after the USSR-USA match ended, the proposed contestants, except for Fine, met in Moscow to iron out the details. Botvinnik announced that he would not play in The Netherlands because he was in a snit about a Dutch news report that suggested his fellow Russians might collude to help him win the title. That collusion theory was pretty widespread wasn't it?
A compromise was reached where the event would be split between The Hague and Moscow. The Soviet Sports Committee refused this idea outright because they wanted all the games to be played in Moscow. Eventually though the The Hague-Moscow compromise was accepted.
It has long been speculated, if that's the right word, that Soviet authorities coerced Keres into throwing games to Botvinnik. Keres's country, Estonia, had been savagely annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940, invaded by Germany in World War II and then retaken by the Soviets. While Estonia was under control of the Nazis Keres participated in German tournaments and was used for propaganda purposes.
After the war the Soviets executed Nazi collaborators which meant Keres would have been on the list to be liquidated. One of the world's strongest players was the Latvian Vladimirs Petrov. Shortly after the Soviets reoccupied Latvia at the end of the war Petrov disappeared. I once heard Edmar Mednis, who was originally from Latvia, discussing Petrov and when someone asked him what happened to Petrov, Mednis' terse reply was, "The Russians shot him."
It's been said Stalin made a deal with Keres that he couldn't refuse...he wouldn't be shot if he didn't interfere with Botvinnik's quest for the world championship. Did Keres throw games to Botvinnik at The Hague-Moscow? There seems to be circumstantial evidence that he did.
Euwe lost almost all of his games which meant that the tournament was really Reshevsky against the three Soviets, one of whom was Keres. At the time the Soviets felt that Reshevsky was stronger than Botvinnik. For what it's worth, Bobby Fischer stated that Reshevsky would easily have defeated Botvinnik in a match. Thus, Reshevsky had to be stopped. As it turned out, Reshevsky wasn't in good form; he lost five games (three to Botvinnik and one each to Smyslov and Keres), but at the time nobody could anticipate his poor results.
The five games between Botvinnik and Keres were of questionable quality considering they were played between two of the strongest players in the world. Keres did defeat Botvinnik in the last game they played, but it had no effect on Botvinnik's first place finish. It did however, allow Keres to catch up with Reshevsky and tie him for third. Suspicious.
According to British chess author and researcher Kenneth Whyld, Keres told him that "he was not ordered to lose... games to Botvinnik and was not playing to lose. But, he had been given instructions that if Botvinnik failed to become World Champion, it must not be the fault of Keres."
In 1991 Botvinnik innocently claimed that "during the second half in Moscow... it was proposed that the other Soviet players... lose to me on purpose... it was Stalin... who proposed this. But of course I refused!" In a 1994 conversation with Gennady Sosonko, Botvinnik said "...in 1948 I played well. I prepared with all my heart and showed what I was capable of."
In the end, Botvinnik won by a wide margin. Even if you eliminate the allegedly rigged games against Keres, he still finished first by one point ahead of Smyslov. Throw out his results against Smyslov and he won by 1.5 points. No doubt about it, Botvinnik deserved the title in 1948.
Further reading:
Did Keres take a dive? Read more
Did the Soviets Collude? A Statistical Analysis of Championship Chess 1940-64 Read more
In the following game Keres got stomped to death in 23 moves...did he play badly enough to prove a fix or was the game as described in The Soviet School of Chess by Kotov and Yudovich as one of the masterpieces of the tournament?
Mikhail Botvinnik - Paul Keres
Result: 1-0
Site: The Hague/Moscow
Date: 1948
Nimzo-Indian: Saemisch Variation
[...] 1.d4 ♘f6 2.c4 e6 3.♘c3 ♗b4 4.e3 Botvinnik employed this move almost exclusively. The advantage is that white abstains from unnecessary complications in favor of a solid position where black is forced to play accurately to keep the balance. 4...O-O Black has a wide variety of systems that give rise to very different types of positions. The text-move is one of the more elastic and black keeps his choices open regarding his further plans.
4...c5 This was successfully used by Reshevsky in later rounds. Black's plan is to blockade the doubled Ps with 5... .c5 and then attack the pawn on c4 with the moves ...b6, ...Ba6 and ...Nc6-a5 5.a3 ♗xc3+ 6.bxc3 ♘c6 7.♗d3 O-O 8.♘e2 b6 9.e4 ♘e8 10.♗e3 d6 11.O-O ♘a5 12.♘g3 ♗a6 Mikhail Botvinnik-Samuel Reshevsky/The Hague/Moscow 1948
5.a3 The Saemisch Variation is a direct attempt to refute black's strategic concept. White gives up a tempo and concedes doubled c-Pawns to gain the B pair. 5...♗xc3+ 6.bxc3 Highly unusual, but not bad. Keres plans an immediate . ..e5 to challenge white in the center. 6...♖e8 With this move Keres was developing along along new paths.
6...d5 At the time this was the standard reply. 7.cxd5 exd5 8.♗d3 with a well analyzed position.
7.♘e2
7.♗d3 is met by 7...e5 and already black has equalized. 8.f3 e4 9.fxe4 ♘xe4 10.♘f3 d6 11.O-O ♗f5
7...e5 8.♘g3 d6 9.♗e2 ♘bd7 10.O-O c5 The game is in uncharted territory. Keres tries to generate a risky attack against the c4-Pawn, but in the process he opens up the position and increases the scope of white's B. Alternatives were 10...Nb6 and 10...e4. 11.f3
11.♕c2 ♘f8 12.dxc5 dxc5 13.♖d1 ♕e7 14.e4 left white white with no adadvantage in Niklasson,C (2385)-Mortensen,E (2365)/ Gladsaxe 1979
11...cxd4 After this white gains the advantage.
11...h5 This interesting move looks quite promising. 12.e4 exd4 13.cxd4 h4 14.♘f5 After 14...♘f8 15.♘e3 ♘e6 16.dxc5 dxc5 17.♕xd8 ♖xd8 18.♘d5 White has but a slight edge.
12.cxd4 ♘b6 13.♗b2 exd4 There is a lot of tension in this position, but white's B on b2 is formidable and it is the basis of Botvinnik's attack on Keres' King. 14.e4 This leaves the B's diagonal open. On the other hand, taking on d4 would close it. 14...♗e6 15.♖c1 ♖e7
15...♖c8 16.♕xd4 ♘a4 17.♗a1 would have provided more resistance according to Kotov. After the text Botvinnik has a free hand on the K-side.
16.♕xd4 ♕c7 17.c5 A nice move that allows Botvinnik to take control of the whole board. 17...dxc5 18.♖xc5 Black's best chance is to play ...Qd8 and ...Rd7. Instead he plays a move thatr leaves his Q exposed and leads to fatally weakens his position. 18...♕f4 19.♗c1 Much better was 19.Bb5
19.♗b5 ♗d7 20.♘f5 Black has no defense. 20...♗xf5 21.♖xf5 ♕h4 22.♗c1 h6 23.♗e3 with an overwhelming position.
19...♕b8
19...♖d7 was no better as after 20.♕a1 ♕d6 21.♗e3 white has a dominating position.
20.♖g5 ♘bd7 This is the losing move and in playing it Keres left himself open to charges of throwing the game. As one of the best players in the world, and a superb tactician at that, you think he would have seen Botvinnik's reply.
20...♘e8 defending g7 offered a glimmer of hope. After 21.♘h5 f6 22.♘xf6+ ♘xf6 23.♕xf6 ♕f8 24.♕xf8+ ♖xf8 Black is only a P down and he can at least continue the fight.
21.♖xg7+ Of course. 21...♔xg7 22.♘h5+ It doesn't matter where the K retreats ..he is dead lost. 22...♔g6
22...♔h8 23.♘xf6 ♕e5 24.♗b2 ♕xd4+ 25.♗xd4 and a piece is lost after white plays Nxd7+
23.♕e3 Mate follows and so Keres resigned.
23.♕e3 ♕xh2+ 24.♔xh2 ♘g4+ 25.fxg4 f6 26.♘xf6 ♘xf6 27.♕g5+ ♔f7 28.♖xf6+ ♔e8 29.♗b5+ ♖d7 30.♖xe6+ ♔f7 31.♖f6+ ♔e8 32.♕e5+ ♔d8 33.♖f8#
23.♕d2 ♕xh2+ 24.♔xh2 ♘g4+ 25.fxg4 f5 26.♖xf5 ♗xf5 27.♗c4 ♗e6 28.♗xe6 ♖xe6 29.♕xd7 a6 30.♕xe6#
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